Recently, I started looking at the portable MP3 players such as the IPod from Apple Computer as well as models made by others. My wheels started turning when I thought about the popularity of the devices coupled with the popularity of cell phone use and the integration of digital cameras and PDA’s into cell phones. Additionally, I considered the most common uses of a computer. These are basically web surfing, email, and composing documents. I thought, “How long would it be before these technologies merge into the same device and still be the size of something you can hold in the palm of your hand?” Well, as it turns out, not long at all. I searched on the Internet and quickly found at least two companies, Nokia and Sendo, which already make devices with these capabilities. There are probably others as well. Currently, these devices cost between $400 and $500. Then I thought, “What if nearly everyone on the planet had one of these?” I believe that this would bring about what Howard Rheingold called in his book, Smart Mobs, a “Social Tsunami.”
As I researched this topic further I found out about an initiative by a group in Bangalore India called the Simputer Trust. They are attempting to create a computer that is affordable in third-world countries and even useable by those who are illiterate. The cost is currently $250 (or $300 for a color screen). This cost may still be too much for the third-world, but as everyone knows costs always come down on computer technology. The fact that these devices are within our grasp in the very near future only adds fuel to the question, “What would our world be like if EVERYONE had a cell phone, digital camera, a lot of memory to store music, and a personal computer with the most used programs in something that they could hold in the palm of their hand?”
If every individual had the capability to obtain and use the kind of device that I have described I believe that we would experience nothing short of a punctuated equilibrium in social evolution. Imagine a world where barriers of distance and class are totally erased. Imagine a world where the degree of separation is zero. Imagine a world where all minds are connected to and by a single machine that is comprised of billions of networked computers. Cyberspace would be come a new dimension of human existence, an extension to the world that is commonly experienced by everyone as time and space. People would exist in two worlds, cyberspace and the “real world.” Cyberspace would become a place where we all meet. Although this technology is already in use today it is still in use only by a fraction of the world’s population. If this technology were in use by the more than 6 billion people on Earth today I can assure you that things will be different. So different, in fact, that I cannot even begin offer any insights into what those changes would be. The secondary effects on human society of such a technology are completely unpredictable. But, this is a scenario that cannot be ignored.
Technology such as this could bring democracy to the world. No longer would people be isolated from their counterparts in other parts of the world. Satellite communications and wireless networks will make that impossible. Never again could a tyrant like Saddam Hussein rise to power, because of peoples’ interconnectedness they will have information that will enable them to recognize and coordinate resistance against such a threat. Howard Rheingold in Smart Mobs supplies an excellent example of how people can exchange information and mobilize when he describes the demonstrations in Seattle during the WTO conference. Having small and cheap computers such as these would enable a third-world philosopher to publish his world changing ideas for the world to share in. This could be done through something like a free weblog service such as Blogger.
We are already experiencing societal changes with the use of cell phones and the Internet. Once again Howard Rheingold provides an illustration of these changes when he tells of the text messaging youths in Japan and Finland that are in constant communication with other members of their “thumb tribe” using their cell phones. Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View tells of the “Global Teenager” who will be hitting the scene around the year 2005. According to population figures there will be a growing number teenagers in the world starting at this time. This generation will be a powerful group of consumers of goods and services. Teenagers love electronics such as cell phones and IPods and the Internet. As countries such as India and China continue their economic growth there will be more people who will be able to afford computers. The rest of the developing world is sure to follow and desire the same types of goods and lifestyle that the rest of the developing world now enjoys. As a result it is only a matter of time before most everyone on the planet owns his or her own personal, portable computer.
Related Sites:
Smart
Mobs by Howard Rheingold
The
Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz
Simputer Trust
Computers
for the Third World, Scientific American
Sendo
Nokia
