Why Predictions For 2007 Instead Of Scenarios

It’s the beginning of a new year again and the Internet and airwaves are rife with predictions. Many futurists, though, dislike predictions (or forecasts) in favor of scenarios. But, if you search on Google with the terms “2007 predictions” you will get more direct/relevant hits than if you search with the terms “2007 scenarios”. Why is that? Essentially, I think that scenarios require more patience and, in general, patience is in short supply. People want answers not a collection of stories that begin with a disclaimer that any of the events outlined may or may not happen. The fact is, though, that many (if not most) predictions are dead wrong. Predictions are easy to rate, though. Ultimately their accuracy is a binary rating. They are either right or wrong. Scenarios, on the other hand, are fuzzy. Some parts are right and some parts are wrong within a given scenario. Reality may prove to be a combination of scenarios. Therefore, scenarios require more evaluation to determine their use or accuracy.

My thoughts on using predictions:
Strictly using predictions is like gambling. But they can be useful inputs to scenarios.

To Learn More:
Scenario Planning: The Link Between Future and Strategy
Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation
The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World

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