I found this story in my RSS feed from webpronews.com this morning. It goes even further than my previous posting. Rather than Semantic Web just being a long way off Mor Naaman, a Semantic Web developer, says that it is not likely to happen. I won’t be that pessimistic. But I will say that the Semantic Web will not likely be what we believe it will be today. I can think back in my personal experience to 1995. This is when I read Neuromancer
because Mark Pesce said that it was his inspiration for creating VRML. I jumped on it, but the rest of the world wasn’t ready. VRML never took off. But today we have Second Life. Second Life didn’t start until 2003. The graphics are much better, though, than anything I saw in VRML back in the day. I heard an interview the other day on the BBC World Service with the author of The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb. He claimed that Google is a Black Swan. Basically, he claims that nobody could have predicted that Google would be what it is today. So then you might say, "Why should I believe anything a Futurist says?" Because good Futurists don’t claim to predict the future. We only claim that based on a set of assumptions a certain scenario is probable. Also, a good futurist doesn’t create only one scenario, we make three or four. The real future will most likely have elements from all the scenarios.
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