Futurist As Coach

This is an excerpt from an email discussion that I had earlier this week with a friend. I think coaching is a growing field where futurists will provide great benefit.

From the email:

I see several categories of futurist. This list is neither exhaustive nor mutually exclusive.

Industry Specific - I think these people typically just call themselves consultants.

Think Tank Researchers - They work for RAND or the Hudson Institute.

Acedemics - They are professors at universities and write papers that few read and occasionally get to say a blurb on NPR radio.

Journalists - They are the likes of Alvin Toffler, the author of 'The Third Wave'.

Coaches - I think this is a new development overall and especially among the futurist ranks. I think this is where the 'generalists' fall. Typically, they try to help the client articulate a goal, perform scanning and scenarios, then create a strategy to achieve the goal with contingencies for the scenarios.

Hope, Greed, and Fear in the Stock Market

Earlier this week I listened to a conversation on MSNBC’s Squak Box about the creation of a new index for judging the strength of the stock market. An argument was made against the creation of a new index (of course) saying that the old ones such as the DOW and the S&P 500 have been and always will be the best type of index. Why? Because they are based on hope, greed, and fear (at least in the reporter’s eyes). Basically, the stocks in those indices are those that have the highest market capitalization in their categories. I guess to be a market leader you need to manipulate people’s hopes (i.e. gambling), be greedy (can you say Enron boys and girls?), or scare the living bejezus out of people (I’m sure the Department of Homeland Security would be happy to oblige).

Is it possible for a new paradigm to emerge? Sure, nearly anything is possible. Looking at the global situation, is it possible that we will see it in our lifetime? Not likely. I think I’ll stick with the current market indicators for now too.

Another Person’s Account of the WFS Conference

Michael Rogers, a columnist, for MSNBC also attended the conference. He published his account on MSNBC’s website. It is already getting criticism from some futurists who call the article “negative”. But, I believe the article is accurate and conforms to my perceptions. Because of the diversity of the group, the word Futurist tends to conjure up negative impressions with some people. Sometimes when I call myself a futurist I still get asked, “Where are our flying cars?” Some will immediately ask me, “So, what’s the future?” This is a very narrow viewpoint of what a futurist is. Basically, to me, a futurist is a thought leader. We try to make people aware of the possibilities that exist and the consequences that may follow. Predicting the future is another area more properly known as Forecasting. Forecasting has a very short time horizon because you really just can’t predict the future, you can only speculate. Futurism, on the other hand, has long time horizons and attempts to make “educated” speculations. Because no single future can be described at longer time horizons a number of possible futures, called scenarios, are used. These scenarios can then be used to, “Change people’s minds.”

Moving To The Exurbs

The exurbs are growing. Why? There is obviously a need that is not being met by existing communities. Unfortunately, most can agree that his kind of growth is neither positive in nature nor sustainable. It seems like we have an opportunity here and we, as a collective group of citizens, are blowing it. What we are seeing are the beginnings of new settlements that will become new style towns and cities. But, unless we do better planning, the end result will be no better than what we have now. For instance if we are going to go out in the desert and build in an open area it seems like the perfect chance to use the designs of Jacque Fresco. Instead the new developments are highly energy intensive and wasteful, just the opposite of what we really need. There is a really good discussion on "Suburbs vs. Exurbs" at City Comforts, the blog.

Pre-Leadership

The practice of leadership begins before you become a leader. Simply put, if you desire to become a leader you will never be one unless you display leadership capabilities. Otherwise, people will never begin to follow your lead nor will you be given a position of leadership. Becoming a leader is not just something that you get appointed to one day. Becoming a leader is a process. That process is one-day-at-a-time leadership. This really hit me like a ton of bricks as I reviewed my notes from Lance Secretan’s Inspire! What Great Leaders Do presentation from the WFS conference. While doing this I reflected back on a conversation that I had with a colleague earlier that day. She had just attended an all-day workshop on leadership by another lecturer. We were trying to reconcile the role that personal leadership played for the employee instead of the manager. It dawned on me that leadership is something that you can practice in your everyday life to gain the respect and admiration of all those that surround you. You do not need to be a CEO to be a true leader. I read over the CASTLE principles of leadership given by Secretan (which I outlined in a previous post). I realized that if I focused on improving these attributes in my everyday life I truly would be a leader. If you practice these principles with conviction others will see it. When they do, you will gain their respect and they will follow your lead because they know you are a leader.

A Not-So Inconvenient Truth

We are presently in the midst of an “Interglacial Period”. The glaciers are supposed to be melting right now. Granted, carbon emissions may be accelerating this process. But, it is widely accepted that the orbit and the tilt of the Earth determine the cycle of ice ages and interglacial periods. Presently, the stars are aligned, so to speak. The Earth’s tilt and orbit are such that we are in a warming cycle. According to NASA, though, the Earth may actually get much colder following this brief (in geological time) warming.

Please read these articles from reputable sources that back my claims:
The Ice Age (Part One)

The Ice Age (Part Two)

A Chilling Possibility

So, what can we do about it? First, we have to understand that things change. Some (possibly most) people see change as bad and therefore fear it. The only reason we have to fear change is if we are unprepared for it. Yes, some cities may end up underwater. Perhaps we should realize that there are forces in the universe much larger than we are and the puny structures that we build. These cities were built without knowledge of the changes that could occur and therefore are unprepared. Now that we have gained knowledge into the forces at play (yes, even the carbon emissions) we need to take action to prepare for the changes ahead. Simply, we need to use methods of foresight to plan a strategy as to how we will adapt.

Perhaps my view is an unpopular one. It seems like the trendy thing to do to walk around crying about global warming. Quite honestly I think all this concern over global warming diverts attention away from more pressing and immediate problems in which we CAN exert greater influence. For instance, maybe we could focus on trying to be more kind and loving. We might put an end to war. Gee, that might save some lives, wouldn’t it? Perhaps we could stop dumping toxic chemicals in our water and spraying them on our food. A warmer planet 20 years from won’t matter much to me if I’m dead from cancer 5 years from now.

So, at this time I’ll ask you to step back and think about what’s really important. What can YOU do today? Try loving your neighbor. It won’t cost you a dime and you have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Human Enhancement and Sports

The latest controversy over Floyd Landis' alleged use of performance enhancing substances strikes a chord with me after listening to discussions concerning Transhumanism at the WFS conference. In some ways I don't care if professional athletes use these substances. Athletes of every age have done everything they could to gain an edge. At one time this may have just consisted of new training routines or eating certain foods. In the age of biotechnology the edge is gained with new chemical substances or possibly even genetic engineering. Arnold Schwarzenegger admits to using steroids. How many people hold it against him? It seems as though it is OK for bodybuilders. We all know it is impossible to get bodies like that without steroids. Why then is it not OK for baseball players (i.e. Barry Bonds) or cyclists? Is the use of these substances just the next step in seeing what the human body can do? The whole thing reminds me of a skit that I saw on Saturday Night Live Years ago. It involved a weightlifter at the "All Drug Olympics". In the skit the weightlifter approaches the bar and attempts to pull the bar off the floor then the announcer for the event exclaims, "Oh my god he pulled his arms off". The scene then shows blood shooting out the weightlifters torn-off arms like water coming out of a garden hose. I'll admit the drugs are dangerous, but in ways more subtle than that.

Like many things, that which is all right for adults to do is not OK for children. My concern is not about the effects of the drugs on adults, it's their choice to use them, or for its effect on any particular sport. My concern is for children who believe that they will need to use these substances to be able to play on their Jr. High football team. My conscious tells me that this would lead to no good. But, this was exactly the kind of thing that Joel Garreau spoke about in his keynote address at the WFS conference. He conveyed a story of your child coming home crying to be enhanced because he/she couldn't keep up with the other kids who were. As a father of a young child, this is an issue that greatly concerns me. We have to realize that when we make decisions that there could be secondary, unintended results.

Reflection On The Annual Conference Of The World Future Society

Two main themes emerged at this year’s Annual Conference of the World Future Society. The first was Technology (big surprise!) and second was Oneness. First, let me elaborate on technology. A keynote address given by Joel Garreau introduced the topic of Transhumanism. I won’t go into it here, I’m sure you can find plenty of references to it on the Internet. Transhumanism is a topic that is also championed by the regular WFS conference attendee and lecturer José Cordeiro. Also discussed was the probability of what is termed as The Singularity. This was the topic of keynote speaker Ray Kurzweil.

What I would like to talk more about, though, is the topic of Oneness. This was introduced in the keynote address given by Lance Secretan. Ervin Laszlo also discussed it from a slightly different angle in a later lecture. Basically, everything is connected. Laszlo defines this scientifically as Systems Theory. Lance Secretan explains how we can apply systems theory to display leadership and make the world a better place.

Laszlo lectured on the information covered in his latest book The Chaos Point: The World At The Crossroads. According to his research the world is coming upon a point of bifurcation. We can either go to Breakdown or Breakthrough. Right now, events are chaotic and unpredictable. They no longer follow the steady linear progression that they once did. So, our roles as futurists are not to predict what will happen but to influence what will happen. Preferably influence the world to make a breakthrough into a more sustainable and peaceful planet.

Secretan gives you the tools to find your calling and destiny to help you become inspired. Once you are inspired you will take action and display leadership to make a positive difference in the world. I especially liked the CASTLE principles for leadership:

Courage

Being brave enough to reach beyond the boundaries created by our existing, often deeply held, limitations, fears and beliefs. Initiating change in our lives—of any kind—happens only when we are courageous enough to take the necessary action.

Authenticity

Committing oneself to show up and be fully present in all aspects of life, removing the mask and becoming a real, vulnerable and intimate human being, a person without self-absorption who is genuine and emotionally and spiritually connected to others.

Service

Focusing on the needs of others by listening to them, identifying their needs, and meeting them. Being inspiring, rather than following a self-focused, competitive, fear-based approach.

Truthfulness

Listening openly to the truth of others and refusing to compromise integrity or to deny universal truths—even when avoiding the truth might, on the face of it, especially in testing times, seem easier.

Love

Embracing the underlying oneness with others and life. Relating to, and inspiring, others and touching their hearts in ways that add to who you both are as persons.

Effectiveness

Being capable of, and successful in, achieving the physical, material, intellectual, emotional, and spiritual goals we set in life..

I would encourage everyone to learn more about Laszlo’s and Secretan’s message.