Change In Wind Direction

Within the past couple of days a couple of high profile names have been making headlines concerning wind power: T. Boone Pickens and Philippe Starck. Pickens has been on every major network announcing his plans to build a wind farm in Texas. Starck is making stylish, designer windmills. Before Pickens was all over TV I read about his intentions in the June issue of Fast Company. The Pickens that you see is a much sanitized version of the Pickens in this article. If you want to know what’s really going on with energy read the article. He's "on the money", literally and figuratively.

Technorati Tags:
design
, sustainability
, energy

Announcing The Laurel Highlands Foresight Institute

Soon this blog will be converted into the "Founder’s Blog" linked to the Laurel Highlands Foresight Institute’s website. I have taken a long hiatus from this website in order to find inspiration and direction. In this time I have founded this new company with the mission of improving the human standard of living in ways that are in harmony with and beneficial to the natural environment of the planet by providing education, products, and services for advancing energy efficiency and environmentally sustainable practices. Stay tuned for the cutover time and the official launching of the site.

Where are the Flying Cars?

I’m about to risk any credibility that I might have by talking about this, but I’m going to do it anyway. Futurists get asked, “Where are the Flying Cars?” all the time so I’ll put in my two cents. The October 2007 issue of Popular Mechanics magazine had a one page article giving the latest progress on the flying car, so I feel compelled to talk about it. I bought the magazine while I was camping in my in-law’s RV. This thing is something like 30 feet long, has 3 slide-outs to expand the interior room, has automatic leveling gear that descends from under the vehicle, and too many other features to name. It’s probably even more advanced than most of our permanent homes. For instance, the refrigerator can run on propane or electricity. Can yours do that? Mine can’t. In any case, my point is that we can build very sophisticated vehicles. So why don’t we have flying cars? Short answer – they’re just not practical.

Think about it, do you really want your average person zipping around overhead? I know I don’t want cars driving over my house anymore than I want the present cars driving through my yard. I have enough air traffic from the small airplanes and helicopters that are already in the air. Therefore, flying cars would have to stay on designated paths (i.e. roads). We would probably just use the same pathways we have now. If this is the case we wouldn’t get anywhere any faster than we already do. Sure, a flying car might be able to achieve higher speeds than a wheeled car, but the cars we drive now are capable of higher speeds than we are allowed to or can safely drive. Another thing that makes a flying car impractical is that it would require more energy to stay suspended in the air than to sit on the ground. With the energy situation being as it is flying cars aren’t the prudent choice unless there is an advantage of great magnitude which I have yet to see.

Blogging from Bar Harbor

I’ve been vacation in Bar Harbor, Maine this past week. This is my fourth visit to Mount Desert Island and Acadia National Park in 12 years. My wife, Cindy, and I honeymooned here and we made it back for our 12th anniversary. While one of the best things about Acadia is its timeless beauty that changes in terms of geological time and not Internet time the Internet has not missed the island. For one thing, I enjoyed wireless access to the Internet from the campground where we parked our RV. There are wireless hotspots all over the island including the city park in Bar Harbor. Twelve years ago I would have been lucky to find a 33 kbps modem connection. Another interesting memory involves the use of cell phones. When Cindy and I were on our honeymoon we attempted to make a call on our cell phone from Cleftstone Manor, the Bed and Breakfast we were staying at. The phone was in a leather case about the size of 8x10x2 inches. When we dialed our number an operator came on the line and asked us if we were sure we really wanted to complete the connection because it would be very expensive. We she told us the cost we decided that the phone call was not worth it. Today we can call for free as long as we are within our allowance on our plan’s minutes.

One of the first activities we did on the island, because it was a rainy day, was to visit the Seal Cove Auto Museum. It was really thought provoking to see how the designs and the technology have changed over the years. Even more thought provoking was seeing all the different U.S. companies that made cars that are no longer in business. Although there are some specialty auto makers (like Tesla Motors) we typically thing of the Big Three (GM, Ford, and Chrysler) today. In today’s global economy we are seeing them falter too. Another thing I saw at the museum was an electric car that was made in 1903. It was not a prototype either, it was a finished product. This is an idea that is still struggling to find acceptance, for instance Tesla Motors and the EV1 which is no longer produced by GM.

Something that hasn’t changed, though, is the abundantly filled, starlit night sky.

Technorati Tags: Acadia National Park, Bar Harbor, Tesla Motors
, cell phone

Mind Shift

Once again it’s been a while since I posted. I’ve been doing a lot of thinking lately. The day after I made my last post I found out that friend from the neighborhood that I grew up in died of brain cancer. It was hard to believe that something like this could happen to one of my friends. He is the same age as me. I always admired his intelligence and he became successful as the director of a local television station. The world has lost one of its best. Recalling the memories of my childhood friend sent me into deep contemplation of my own life, what I have done, and what I will do.

Around the time that this happened I was doing some environmental scanning for what could be one of the next big significant trends. I came across the webpage for Paul Zane Pilzer. He claims that the next trillion-dollar industry will be in the health and wellness business. That seemed plausible to me. But reading deeper I found that the health and wellness industry mostly comprised of people peddling vitamins using multi-level marketing (MLM) tactics, also known as network marketing. He claims that this is going to produce a significant number of millionaires. Pilzer seems like a really intelligent guy, but I’m just not buying it. I do believe that the health and wellness industry is going to be huge. This is in large part due to the baby boomers wanting to maintain their health as they age. But I don’t get the MLM connection. Donald Trump and Robert Kiyosaki have a book out called, Why We Want You to be Rich. In there they also promote MLM as a way to attain riches. Frankly, I don’t want to live in a world where I am constantly being approached by MLM’ers. The thought repulses me and I don’t believe that it is a good path to being a millionaire any more than winning the lottery.

Scott, you say, where are you going with all of this? Well, these things combined had me thinking about what defines success, how money is made, and how I measure up. While I’m not a big fan of the MLM model I do believe that if you want to make money sales is the place to be. I read an interesting line in some literature on the Landslide website: “A company doesn’t exist to make things. A company exists to sell things.” I thought that was a very powerful statement. I also believe that the health and wellness industry will be as big as Pilzer says it will be. This is definitely a trend to watch. But, there is much more to it than peddling vitamins. Health (and youth) is what people are after. Really, the best thing that anyone can do is exercise and eat a healthy diet. That is what I try to do. Yes, I take some vitamins too, but they are more for enhancement than a foundation (see Joel Garreau). Unfortunately, most everyone has heard and understood the message but they still won’t do what it takes to be healthy. The even bigger trend is biotechnology and new methods of diagnosis and new surgical methods. My conclusion is that, while it is perceived that futurists like to dream big dreams, my personal emphasis will be on sales strategies. Sales is a more complex field than most imagine and it is evolving everyday. Sales is about offering solutions and solving problems. If you don’t know how to sell your solution you don’t make any money and people’s problems don’t get solved. Being a success requires being successful in sales. This is true whether you’re trying to convince a colleague in the next cubicle to "buy" your way of doing somehting or if you are trying to sell the next breakthrough in biotechnology.

Technorati Tags:
sales
, Paul Zane Pilzer
, health
, Donald Trump
, Robert Kiyosaki
, Joel Garreau
, MLM
, biotechnology

Nuclear Power Is Not An Option For Energy Independence

In recent years former opponents of nuclear power in U.S. have changed their minds in the face of concerns over global warming caused by burning fossil fuels. Some thought that this would revive the nuclear power industry in America. But, the United States’ ability to produce the nuclear fuel is in question. USEC, the company in America that enriches uranium, is in serious financial trouble. This is the focus in this New York Times article. Something even more startling pointed out by the article is that the U.S. imports 90 percent of its uranium. Nuclear power now appears to not be an answer to the United States’ long term energy plan.

Technorati Tags:
nuclear+power, uranium, global+warming

The System Dynamics of the US Government

Have you ever heard someone say something to the extent of, "The founding fathers would be rolling in their graves if they knew what going on today?" That kind of thinking really doesn’t make sense. The US government is no different today than it was at its founding. It is a system. The system permitted the creation of laws, constitutional amendments, or procedures that are different today from those created 231 years ago. So, if someone thinks that the government is broken they are wrong. It’s always been this way. The system of governing is still the same. Perhaps if the leadership of the United States is not performing as it should then a new system of government needs to be created. It would be foolish to believe that the perfect form of government has already been created. As times, communications technology, and belief systems change it is possible that a major change in governmental systems is needed to deal with the complexity of the modern world. I don’t know what this new system is yet and I’m not advocating revolution. I’m just suggestion that we leave our minds open to a new way.

The inspiration for these thoughts comes from a paper I recently read on system dynamics titled, Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System by Donella Meadows. It describes the least powerful and most powerful ways to create change in a system. I highly recommend reading it. If you’re short on time you can get the Wikipedia version.

Technorati Tags:
system+dynamics, founding+fathers, us+government, donella+meadows

More Evidence That US Patent Laws Need To Change

Just a quick update on what some other people are saying about how US patent laws are strangling innovation. Check out this interview with Alan Cox. Take a look at his response to question 12 concerning Microsoft and intellectual property:

12) Do you share some people's fear of Microsoft's threats (concerning patents and intellectual property)?

"I don't think they are the biggest danger. As Microsoft has been finding out recently it is the patent trolls, and organisations with buried patents in interesting areas that are the biggest threat in the USA. The real answer to that problem however is to pull the USA back into line with the majority of the world which simply does not recognize patents on software but respects them as literary works subject to copyright law. Also therefore we have to make sure the continuing US attempts to spread bogus patent law into the EU are defeated."

It appears as though I’m not the only one that sees this is a problem.

Technorati Tags:
Microsoft, intellectual+property, patent

Amish Power

This is the first time I've ever heard anyone refer to the Amish as "early technology adopters". But that’s what this NPR Radio segment calls them. I've been to the area of Ohio where this Amish community resides several times. I have been in the furniture stores that are lit by electric light bulbs connected to large, probably deep cycle, batteries. I didn't realize that they could be recharging them with solar panels. I admire their slower pace of life and their contemplative approach to technology. But, I still can't help to think that there is quite a bit of hypocrisy in their methods. I think it is great that they are conservative power users and that they are using clean, solar power. Have they ever thought how those solar panels are made? They would never use the technology that it takes to make them, so how is it right to use them? To me, this is just proof that you can't always expect logic and rational thought to explain why things are the way they are in the world.

Technorati Tags:
Amish, solar+power, early+adopters

Teach Me, Google

Folks with an MBA might be familiar with PEST (Political, Economic, Social, Technological) analysis. The futurist crowd typically uses STEEP (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political) analysis. Google shows once again that they are ahead of the crowd with PESTEL (Political, Economical, Sociocultural, Technological, Environmental, Legal) analysis. See slide 13 of this Strategic Analysis: Google presentation to see where I got this from. The addition of the legal frame makes a lot of sense given the litigious nature today’s copyright and intellectual property (IP) landscape. I’ve written before about increasing court battles over IP. It is my concern that court battles will stifle rather than stimulate innovation in America. In the past IP protection encouraged innovation because people knew that they would benefit from their hard work and that a competitor with larger resources could not take their idea and profit from it. Digitization and the Internet have changed the rules of the game. While Americans argue in court the rest of the world, not under the jurisdiction of American courts, will move right ahead inventing and making things. The United States only accounts for approximately 300 million of the 6 billion people with purchasing power on this earth. While the U.S. has been the wealthiest population in the world this too is changing. If you don’t believe me check out the numbers in Shift Happens.

Technorati Tags: Google, PESTEL, intellectual property